In the articles on the Lancaster property market, we like to provide an insight into the real story of what is happening in our Lancaster (and national) property market and address the misconceptions that some of the media have been spreading.
Despite almost daily reports of a housing market crash since September 2022, the data shows that the British (and Lancaster) property market is doing OK.
So, let’s dive into the stats and start with the life blood of the housing market – new properties coming on to the market.
Nationally, 444,668 UK properties came onto the market in Q1 2024.
Interesting when compared to 407,946 UK properties in Q1 2023 and the 7-year Q1 average (2017 to 2023) of 403,105 new properties on the market. New properties coming onto the market are a vital bellwether of the property market.
Why? Well in 2008, the number of properties coming on the market in Q1 was double that of 2007, this meant supply (number of homes on the market) vastly outstripped demand and hence economics dictated, and house prices fell.
The balance of houses coming on the market and how many sell determine what happens to property prices.
So how do you know if we are heading for another Lancaster house price crash as we did in 2008 or not, as the case maybe? Let me share a quick and easy way to find out before anyone else.
Initially, perform a Rightmove search in Lancaster and write down the number of properties for sale every week. Next, carry out the same search, yet this time include sold subject to contract properties and make a note of that. The difference between the two numbers will show the number properties sold subject to contract. The final step is to calculate the ratio between the first two numbers: i.e., what’s available versus what’s been sold.
If the ratio of sold property to available property rises monthly, the market is improving. If the ratio is falling, the market is slowing.
If you really wish to go deep into this; you could split the search into property type (and bedrooms) you are selling and buying e.g., detached, semi, terraced/town house or apartments. This will help you to judge demand and supply and time the market to your advantage.
Next, looking at house sales nationally, 302,382 properties sold (stc) in Q1 2024.
However, the devil is in the data. Comparing with previous stats, in Q1 2023, 276,482 properties sold stc whilst the 8-year Q1 average (2017 to 2024 inclusive) was 304,363. Obviously, the medium term 8-year UK average includes Q1 2021, where 397,402 properties had sold stc and Q1 2022 when 341,888 properties sold stc. Both of those years were exceptional; however, when we compare Q1 2024 to the Q1 average of 2017/18/19/20, a more reasonable 282,488 houses were sold stc on average.
Next, I wish to look at what is selling nationally by price band.
- 35.4% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were up in the price band up to £250k, yet 42.9% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 41.0% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the £250k to £500k price band, yet only 39.6% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 13.4% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the £500k to £750k price band, yet only 10.7% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 5.1% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the £750k to £1m price band, yet only 3.7% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 5.1% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the £1m + price band, yet only 3.1% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
Looking locally at the Q1 stats, starting with the number of properties in the Lancaster area (LA1) that came onto the market in Q1 2024 …
283 properties came onto the market in Q1 2024 in the Lancaster area.
The average price of those Lancaster properties coming to the market was £224,623
The price range/band that saw the most listings was the £150k to £200k range, where 75 Lancaster area properties came onto market (followed by the £200k to £250k range, where 55 properties came onto the market).
Now, looking at sales in Lancaster …
232 properties were sold in Q1 2024 in the Lancaster area.
The average price of those Lancaster properties selling was £216,546
The price range/band that saw the most sales was the £150k to £200k range, where 66 Lancaster area properties were sold (followed by the £100k to £150k range with 46 Lancaster area properties sold subject to contract).
Typical first-time buyer properties are leading the recovery.
Although economic turbulence remains, the UK property market is gradually moving towards pre-pandemic activity levels.
Some of you might have noticed with the national listings and sales figures mentioned above, that the lower priced range of properties are performing better than the higher priced properties. For example, just over a third (35.4%) of UK listings were £250k or below, yet that price band accounted for over 1 in 2.3 house sales (42.9%). Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, 8.9% of listings in the UK in Q1 ’24 were in the £750k to £2m price band, yet only 6.2% of the sales were in the same band. In the £2m+ price range, even though the numbers are very small, the difference is quite startling, 1.3% of listings were £2m+, but only 0.55% of sales agreed were in the same range.
So, what does this all mean for Lancaster homeowners wanting to sell in this market?
Realistic pricing when you put your house on the market is everything!
In Q1 2024, there have been 198,682 price reductions on the 633,417 properties on the market.
In comparison, there were 243,602 price reductions in Q1 2023 on the 590,481 properties on the market and 119,068 price reductions in Q1 2022 on 424,796 properties on the market.
It is better to come on the market at a realistic price to start when the property is fresh to the market, than go on at a high price, lose that initial honeymoon period and then reduce it, only for some people to wonder what was wrong with the property.
Although higher mortgage rates and economic headwinds present challenges, many potential Lancaster home buyers who were effectively side-lined in the fierce bidding wars of 2021/22 will find that a slower paced Lancaster property market gives them time to plan a strategy for their next move as we go into the traditionally busy post-Easter house buying season.
While the demand for quality Lancaster houses is still healthy, if the asking price is above the current market, sellers may need help finding buyers!
My name is Michelle Gallagher. At JDG sensible pricing combined with a tailored marketing plan is key for selling success. So fat this year, 28% of all Lancaster homes have sold via our agency. Can we help you move in 2024?
Please get in touch by calling me on 01524 843322 or email me at michelle@jdg.co.uk.
Thanks for reading
Michelle x
