It’s the question on many people’s lips — will the Lancaster property market crash this year?
Back in early 2023, the headlines were filled with gloomy predictions. Halifax forecasted an 8% drop, Savills 10%, and Nomura Bank suggested prices could fall as much as 15%. Yet here we are in mid-2025, and the doomsday scenario simply hasn’t materialised.
Let’s look at the real figures. Across the UK, house prices are actually 1.76% higher today than in January 2023. Here in Lancaster, they’re just 1.7% lower — hardly the crash so many feared.
While we did see a slight national dip earlier this year — with Nationwide reporting a 0.8% fall in June and the Land Registry noting a 2.8% annual drop in April — these figures follow an unprecedented post-Covid boom. What we’re seeing now is normalisation, not collapse.
What’s happening behind the scenes?
A really interesting stat comes from Denton House Research, who track property prices per square foot at the sale agreed stage – a good five months ahead of Land Registry data. Across the UK, this figure was £338.67 five months ago. Today, it stands at £346.25 per square foot. That points to a likely 2.24% increase in published prices by January 2026 – again, not the sign of a crash.
And right here in Lancaster, the market is gaining pace. In the first half of 2025, 758 homes were sold subject to contract — up from 673 in the same period last year. That’s a real sign of growing confidence
What are the experts saying now?
Most forecasters now expect moderate growth this year — not a decline. Savills and the HomeOwners Alliance are projecting a 4% rise. Zoopla expects 2.5%. Knight Frank and Capital Economics are also forecasting gentle annual increases through to 2027.
So, what’s supporting the Lancaster market?
✅ Lower mortgage rates – After peaking at over 6% in 2023, rates have settled. Many fixed deals are now under 4.5%, making homeownership more affordable.
✅ A strong job market – With unemployment at just 4.6% and wage growth steady at 5.2%, most households are in a good place to manage repayments.
✅ Tougher mortgage rules – Since 2014, stress testing has ensured borrowers can cope with higher rates. Most passed affordability tests at 7.5–8% interest – so today’s rates are manageable for many.
✅ More homes available – There are 658 homes for sale in Lancaster today, compared to just 386 this time last year. That’s giving buyers more choice and easing upward pressure on prices.
At the same time, demand remains strong. First-time buyers are returning, encouraged by high rents and the long-term value of owning. Some landlords are exiting the market, which tightens rental supply and pushes more people toward buying.
It’s worth remembering: in 2007, Lancaster had 797 homes for sale — and that contributed to the crash. We’re not at those levels now, and market fundamentals are stronger.
Could things change? Of course, economic shocks can happen. But we’re not seeing the danger signs of the past — no runaway unemployment, no sudden spike in interest rates, and no flood of forced sales.
This isn’t 2008. And it’s not the late 80s either.
Here at JDG, we believe the 2025 Lancaster housing market is on a steady footing. It’s a market that’s returning to normal — not one heading for a cliff edge.
If you’re thinking about moving, buying or investing, it’s important to focus on the facts, not the headlines. And if you’d like a local expert view on your next step, we’re here to help.
Call us on 01524 843322 – or pop into our Lancaster office for a friendly chat.
Thanks for reading
Michelle x
